The World Cup is often won long before the knockout rounds begin.

Not on the scoreboard.

But in the clues teams leave behind during the group stage.

The first round of matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup has now given us enough evidence to revisit some of the predictions we made before the tournament began.

Some teams have strengthened our confidence. Others have raised doubts. And a few underdogs have forced the football world to pay attention.

Spain: Still My Number One

Before the tournament started, I rated Spain as my strongest team.

The opening match against Cape Verde ended in a shocking 0-0 draw and many people immediately questioned Spain’s credentials. But football often rewards patience. Spain followed up with a convincing 4-0 victory over Saudi Arabia and now sit atop Group H.

What impressed me was not the draw. It was Spain’s response. Great teams do not panic.

They adjust, learn and improve.

Spain remain my favourite.

Cape Verde: The Surprise Package

No team has won more admirers than Cape Verde.

They frustrated Spain to a historic goalless draw and followed it up with a courageous 2-2 draw against Uruguay.

What looked like a lucky result against Spain now appears to be something more serious. These boys are organised.

Disciplined and Fearless.

Their performance reminds us that modern football has become far more democratic than many imagine. The gap between giants and outsiders is shrinking.

Morocco: Africa’s Standard Bearer

I tipped Morocco as Africa’s strongest hope before the tournament. Nothing I have seen so far changes that view.

A 1-1 draw against Brazil followed by a hard-fought victory over Scotland demonstrates tactical maturity and defensive discipline. Morocco may not always dominate possession but they know exactly who they are. And that identity wins tournaments.

Brazil: Good But Not Convincing Yet

Brazil remain dangerous.

A draw against Morocco and a comfortable victory over Haiti have put them in a strong position. Yet something still feels missing. The old Brazilian swagger appears restrained.

The talent is there, flair is there but the aura of inevitability is not.

I still expect them to reach the latter stages.

I am just not ready to place them above Spain, France or Argentina yet.

England: Exciting But Still England

England’s 4-2 victory over Croatia was one of the most entertaining performances of the tournament so far.

Going forward they looked excellent. Defensively, nah, they looked vulnerable.

That has been England’s story for years, enough quality to beat almost anybody and enough defensive uncertainty to lose against almost anybody.

They remain contenders, but not favourites.

France: Quietly Building Momentum

France did what serious teams do.

They won.

No drama.

No panic.

Just a professional 3-1 victory over Senegal.

France rarely seek headlines during the group stage. They simply accumulate points and improve with each match. That is why they remain one of the most dangerous teams in the competition.

Germany: The Statement Team

Germany have perhaps made the strongest early statement.

A 7-1 demolition of Curacao followed by a 2-1 victory over Ivory Coast has placed them firmly among the favourites.

Before the tournament I ranked Germany below Spain, France and Argentina. After two matches, they are making me reconsider.

Argentina: Looking Like Champions Again

Argentina’s 3-0 victory over Algeria was vintage tournament football.

Efficient. Controlled and simply Clinical.

The defending champions have not dazzled. They have simply looked comfortable.

That should worry everybody else.

Portugal: My Dark Horse Remains Alive

Portugal drew 1-1 with DR Congo.

Many observers saw that as disappointing.

I did not.

Tournament football is full of awkward opening matches. The quality and experience remains there.

And as long as players like Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes and Diogo Dalot are involved, I will continue to watch Portugal with great interest.

They remain my dark horse.

Revised Power Rankings

After the opening phase, my rankings would be:

Spain
France
Argentina
Germany
Morocco
Brazil
England
Portugal

Final Thought

The first lesson of World Cup 2026 is simple.

Do not underestimate discipline.

Cape Verde taught us that.

Morocco reminded us of that.

And Germany reinforced it.

Talent wins matches.

Organisation wins tournaments.

And after the first round of games, my pre-tournament belief remains largely intact:

Spain are still the team to beat.

For now.